Three Years In: Where the War Stands
More than three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the conflict remains one of the most devastating in modern European history. Originally billed by the Kremlin as a “special military operation” to “de-Nazify” Ukraine, the war has instead turned into a prolonged geopolitical quagmire with significant global consequences.
At its peak, Russia controlled up to 22% of Ukrainian territory. As of mid-2025, that figure has fallen to 17%, but Kyiv remains under constant threat, and cities like Kharkiv and Kherson are enduring repeated drone and missile attacks.
Timeline: From Blitzkrieg to Attrition
In the early weeks of the war, Russian troops reached the suburbs of Kyiv. However, Ukrainian resistance proved far more effective than expected, bolstered by NATO-supplied arms like Bayraktar drones, Javelin missiles, and the NLAW anti-tank system from the UK.
By late 2022, Russia had withdrawn from northern Ukraine, including Kyiv’s outskirts. In November, Ukraine successfully reclaimed Kherson, dealing Moscow a significant blow.
Since then, however, the war has shifted to a brutal war of attrition, mostly centered in the Donbas region and southern Ukraine.
Current Frontlines and Offensive Operations
In 2025, Russia is focused on gaining full control of Donetsk and Luhansk, with heavy fighting reported near Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk. Meanwhile, Ukraine launched a limited summer counteroffensive aimed at disrupting Russian advances and regaining territory near Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv.
A recent Russian push near Dobropillya saw an unexpected 10km advance. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warn that thousands of Ukrainian troops could be encircled if Russia maintains this momentum.
Meanwhile, Russia’s renewed offensive north of Kharkiv—bolstered by North Korean troops and Iranian-made drones—aims to establish a buffer zone along the border. Ukrainian forces have struggled to slow this advance due to manpower shortages.
Ceasefire Talks and Diplomacy
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to meet this week to explore peace terms. Trump has publicly floated the idea of “territory swaps” to end the conflict, a proposal Kyiv has categorically rejected.
President Volodymyr Zelensky insists that any peace deal requiring the surrender of Ukrainian land would set a dangerous precedent. The talks follow a new U.S.-Ukraine agreement signed in April to jointly benefit from Ukraine’s mineral and energy resources, incentivizing Washington’s continued support.
Casualties and Cost of War
- Ukrainian deaths (official): 43,000 military personnel
- Russian losses (estimates): 165,000–235,000 troops
- Civilians killed: Estimated 30,000+ (UNHCR, Red Cross)
- Total economic damage: $1.3 trillion across both countries
The humanitarian toll includes displacement of over 12 million people, with widespread destruction of residential areas, power grids, and infrastructure.
Drone Warfare and Strategic Bombing
Ukraine has intensified its use of drone swarms, launching attacks deep into Russian territory, including airbases in Murmansk, Irkutsk, and Ryazan. A major Ukrainian operation using 100+ drones reportedly damaged nuclear-capable bombers.
Russia has retaliated with drone strikes and missiles targeting Kyiv, Odesa, and the Kherson bridge, killing dozens and injuring hundreds.
The Fight for Information and Influence
Propaganda continues to be a battleground. Russia aims to present itself as making steady progress, while Ukraine counters with stories of resistance and liberation. Both sides utilize platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Telegram, and YouTube, with disinformation often amplified by state-affiliated accounts.
Netflix and HBO have both produced major documentaries on the war, influencing global public opinion.
Global Economic & Military Impact
NATO and Military Spending:
- NATO’s defense spending rose by 14% in 2024
- Poland, Germany, and the UK have surpassed the 2% GDP threshold
- Sweden and Finland officially joined NATO in 2023
Sanctions & Trade:
- Russia’s economy contracted by 6.4% in 2024 despite increasing oil exports to India, China, and Turkey
- Western tech sanctions (Microsoft, Intel, AMD, Apple) have hurt Russia’s military production
- Russian imports of Samsung, LG, and Sony tech fell by 75%
Energy & Commodities:
- Ukraine’s natural gas and lithium reserves have become central to rebuilding talks
- Russia lost 18% of its gas exports after EU phased out Gazprom contracts
Public Opinion Shifts
In Ukraine, national unity has solidified. Support for joining the EU and NATO is above 80%. In Russia, independent polls suggest war fatigue is rising, especially among the youth and urban populations.
Meanwhile, global sentiment—especially in Europe, Canada, and Australia—remains pro-Ukraine. Major platforms like Meta, Google, and TikTok have taken stronger stances on Russian disinformation.
The Role of the West
The United States remains the largest donor of military and financial aid to Ukraine. Congress approved another $65 billion in aid this year, including Lockheed Martin HIMARS, Baykar TB2s, and Raytheon Stinger missiles.
The EU Investment Fund for Ukraine is expected to reach €300 billion by 2027, focusing on reconstruction, education, and digital infrastructure.
What Lies Ahead?
Analysts see three scenarios:
- Frozen conflict akin to Korea
- Partition of Ukraine under a negotiated settlement
- Ukrainian victory supported by Western arms and economic leverage
While the Trump-Putin talks are unlikely to yield a swift resolution, pressure from Western allies and internal Russian fatigue may eventually force a compromise.
Final Thought
What began as a swift invasion has evolved into a long war of willpower, strategy, and international alignment. With every drone strike, summit, and frontline push, the future of Eastern Europe—and the rules-based global order—hang in the balance.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions.
